Business, Commerce and Management Studies Finance, Economics and Accounting

Financial Risk Trend Analysis and Occurrence Research Training

SAQA US 242581 | NQF 5 | Credits 7 | Duration 4 Days
From $1,107 per delegate

Description

This course equips learners with the skills to systematically research the incidence, quantity, and severity of financial occurrences to uncover trends and anticipate potential risks. Participants will learn to apply quantitative and qualitative methods to analyse historical data, identify patterns, and forecast financial exposures, enabling proactive risk management within their organisations.

Learning Outcomes

  • Apply appropriate research methodologies to gather data on the incidence, quantity, and severity of financial occurrences.
  • Analyse collected data to identify trends and patterns that indicate potential financial risks.
  • Evaluate the severity and impact of identified trends on organisational financial health.
  • Design a trend analysis report that anticipates future financial risks based on research findings.
  • Implement risk mitigation strategies informed by trend analysis outcomes.
  • Demonstrate the ability to present findings and recommendations to stakeholders effectively.

Target Audience

Financial analysts, risk managers, auditors, and finance professionals responsible for identifying and mitigating financial risks through data-driven trend analysis.

Prerequisites

None — open enrollment.

Course Outline

Day 1: Foundations of Financial Risk and Trend Analysis

Objectives:
• Define financial risk and its key categories.
• Explain the purpose and importance of trend analysis in risk management.
• Identify sources of financial data for risk analysis.
• Describe basic statistical tools used in trend identification.
• Outline the regulatory framework guiding financial risk analysis in South Africa.

Topics:
• Introduction to financial risk: market, credit, liquidity, operational risk.
• Role of trend analysis in risk identification and mitigation.
• Data sources: financial statements, market indices, economic indicators.
• Basic statistical concepts: mean, median, standard deviation, correlation.
• Time series data and moving averages.
• Regulatory context: SAQA, FSCA, Basel III principles.
• Ethical considerations and data integrity.
• Case study: Identifying trends in a company's financial ratios.

Day 2: Quantitative Methods for Risk Trend Analysis

Objectives:
• Apply quantitative techniques to analyze financial risk trends.
• Interpret regression analysis and volatility measures.
• Use probability distributions to assess risk occurrences.
• Calculate Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall.
• Evaluate the limitations of historical data in trend prediction.

Topics:
• Regression analysis: linear and multiple regression for trend estimation.
• Volatility modeling: standard deviation, beta, and GARCH models.
• Probability distributions: normal, lognormal, and fat-tailed distributions.
• Value at Risk (VaR): parametric, historical simulation, Monte Carlo.
• Expected Shortfall and stress testing.
• Backtesting and model validation.
• Limitations: non-stationarity, structural breaks, data quality.
• Practical exercise: Compute VaR for a portfolio using Excel.

Day 3: Qualitative Risk Assessment and Occurrence Research

Objectives:
• Conduct qualitative risk assessments using scenario analysis.
• Apply root cause analysis to identify risk occurrence drivers.
• Integrate expert judgment and Delphi method in risk research.
• Use risk registers and heat maps to prioritize risks.
• Analyze case studies of major financial risk events.

Topics:
• Scenario analysis: constructing plausible future scenarios.
• Root cause analysis: techniques like 5 Whys and fishbone diagrams.
• Expert judgment elicitation: Delphi method and surveys.
• Risk registers: structure, updating, and reporting.
• Risk heat maps: likelihood vs. impact matrix.
• Case studies: 2008 financial crisis, South African bank failures.
• Behavioral biases in risk perception.
• Group exercise: Develop a risk register for a simulated company.

Day 4: Integrated Risk Trend Analysis and Reporting

Objectives:
• Synthesize quantitative and qualitative analyses into a coherent risk report.
• Communicate risk trends and findings to stakeholders.
• Develop early warning indicators for risk occurrence.
• Apply trend analysis to inform risk mitigation strategies.
• Evaluate the effectiveness of risk management frameworks.

Topics:
• Integrated risk reporting: structure, key metrics, visualizations.
• Early warning indicators: leading vs. lagging indicators.
• Risk mitigation strategies: hedging, diversification, insurance.
• Stress testing and reverse stress testing.
• Monitoring and updating risk models.
• Presentation skills for risk analysts.
• Ethical dilemmas in risk reporting.
• Final project: Prepare a risk trend analysis report for a real or simulated company.

Practicals

12 hours of practicals To be conducted online or on-campus or in-house
Overview

Practical sessions allow learners to apply quantitative and qualitative risk analysis techniques using real-world data and case studies. Hands-on exercises with Excel and risk management software reinforce theoretical concepts and build competency in trend analysis and occurrence research.

Practical Activities
  • Practical 1: Data Collection and Basic Trend Analysis — Learners collect financial data from public sources and compute moving averages, standard deviations, and correlations using Excel. (3h)
  • Practical 2: Value at Risk (VaR) Calculation — Learners compute VaR using parametric and historical simulation methods for a given portfolio, and backtest results. (3h)
  • Practical 3: Qualitative Risk Assessment Workshop — In groups, learners conduct a scenario analysis and root cause analysis for a case study, producing a risk register and heat map. (3h)
  • Practical 4: Integrated Risk Report Presentation — Learners compile findings from previous practicals into a comprehensive risk trend analysis report and present to peers for feedback. (3h)

Summatives

Each delegate is assessed continuously throughout the course via daily exercises, scored practical assignments, and a final summative test at the end.

Practical Assignments — 30%

Practical assignments are observed and scored against a rubric during the practical sessions. Each delegate's practical mark is averaged into a single 100% score and contributes 30% to the final total.

Daily Exercises — 20%

Every training day ends with a multiple-choice exercise scored out of 100%. The scores from each daily exercise are averaged across the duration of the course to produce a Daily Average mark, which contributes 20% to the final total.

Final Test — 50%

On the last day a final summative test is written. It is a multiple-choice paper with multiple-answer questions: each question may have more than one correct option, and a single wrong selection on a question marks the entire question wrong — no partial credit. The final test is scored out of 100% and contributes 50% to the overall mark.

Final Total
Component Out of Weight
Practical Assignments (rubric-scored) 100% 30%
Daily Average (multiple choice) 100% 20%
Final Test (multi-answer multiple choice) 100% 50%
Final Total 100%

All marks are recorded on the AATICD LMS and visible to each learner under their account.

Certificate

Certificate of Completion

Awarded to delegates who achieve an overall mark of 50% or higher on the Final Total (Practicals 30% + Daily Average 20% + Final Test 50%).

How it works
  • Certificates are auto-generated on the AATICD LMS as soon as the marks pass the 50% threshold.
  • Each certificate is a branded PDF with the delegate's name, the course title, the unit standard ID, NQF level, credits, and the date of issue.
  • You can download or print your certificate from your LMS dashboard at any time after issue — there's no reissue fee and no expiry date.
  • If you scored under 50% you can sit the final test again at the next scheduled session at no extra cost.
Where to find it

Sign in to the LMS, open your dashboard, and your certificates appear under My Certificates. Each entry has a View / Download button and a print option.

Training Discounts

Group discounts apply automatically — the more delegates you enrol, the greater the saving. Discounts are calculated at 3% per 5 delegates, scaling up to 40% off for 100+ delegates.

Delegates Discount
5 3% off
10 6% off
15 9% off
20 12% off
25 15% off
30 18% off
50 30% off
75 35% off
100 40% off

3% discount per 5 delegates, up to 40% off for 100+ delegates. Contact us for a custom group quote.

Upcoming Training Sessions
Online training — attend live sessions from anywhere via our virtual classroom.
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Tue 08 Sep 2026 Fri 11 Sep 2026 Virtual Spring 2026 $1,107 Register
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Mon 27 Dec 2027 Thu 30 Dec 2027 Virtual Summer 2027 $1,107 Register
Tue 18 Jan 2028 Fri 21 Jan 2028 Virtual Summer 2027 $1,107 Register
On-Campus training — face-to-face sessions at our training venues across Africa and beyond.
Showing all 498 sessions across 26 venues
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Tue 04 Jan 2028 Fri 07 Jan 2028 Your Premises Summer 2027 $1,436 Register
Mon 24 Jan 2028 Thu 27 Jan 2028 Your Premises Summer 2027 $1,436 Register
Training Discounts
Delegates Discount
5 3% off
10 6% off
15 9% off
20 12% off
25 15% off
30 18% off
50 30% off
75 35% off
100 40% off

3% off per 5 delegates, up to 40% for 100+

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